[schwza]

hand 1: agree with everyone: push or fold. if sirio's range here is really wide, i think pushing is ok. he would have to be very very aggro for me not to fold though.

on the flop, folding is horrible. how can you believe both

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Further, based on my read of Sirio, I believe I am behind every possible holding that he may have.

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and

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Hand #1 villain is Sirio11 who could be raising preflop with a very wide range of hands.


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what do you think he does after raising with A8 and getting that flop? check/folding? check/calling? he's probably pushing. same for JT, K8, and a ton of other hands you're ahead or way ahead of. the only hands that have you in real bad shape are AA, sets, and straights. AQ+ you have 3 scoop and 4 chop outs, plus backdoor flush. something like 77 and you have 10 outs + flush.

there is 47.4k in the pot, and you only have to call 29k more. by strict chipEV, you only need to win ~27%. by cashEV, it's probably something like 35% (but i'm just guessing on that conversion). i think you're around 50% to win.