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All of the liberals are going to vote on low probabilities. They love to complain about hard hard life is and how broke they are.
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"Pro-Government Conservatives and Disadvantaged Democrats have similar socioeconomic backgrounds and confront many of the same financial struggles. Both groups are predominantly female, both are relatively poor, and large majorities in both groups express dissatisfaction with their financial circumstances.
But these groups have strikingly different outlooks on their lives and possibilities that go a long way toward explaining the differences in their political attitudes. Feelings about the power of the individual are a major factor in this division. Pro-Government Conservatives are defined, at least in part, by their optimism in this area. About three-quarters (76%) believe that most people can get ahead if they are willing to work hard * and two-thirds (66%) strongly express that view. An even higher percentage of Pro-Government Conservatives (81%) say that everyone has it in his or her own power to succeed.
Disadvantaged Democrats have a gloomier outlook. Just 14% think that people can get ahead by working hard; 79% say that hard work is no guarantee of success, and 76% express that view strongly."
http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=945
I voted for one of the higher probabilities. With the caveat that I am making this estimate for a motivated person I would say they are a favorite to lead a middle class lifestyle. I consider middle class to be something like: 30k < middle class < 100k/year. Above that level I would consider someone upper mc or whatever.
ETA:
I like the guy from Cleveland's definition of middle class better than my previous one, I would then have to lower the probability a bit, but still a favorite, so I would vote 50-70%