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i don't think anyone is arguing that he should play for first. but you dont do that by ignoring the bubble. I'm just saying it should be included in his thinking (and it was) when he has a decision to make.

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The 4K difference between 1/3 of 2nd table and 2nd table is a factor. However, hero's expectation is probably about 60K if he doubles up, 25K if he didn't play the hand, and 15K if he folded. I just don't think it is that big a factor.

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You think doubling more than doubles his EV?