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Old 12-13-2005, 12:55 PM
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Default Re: Results not important, please critique flop and turn play

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Would someone mind explaining to me how the turn is an automatic call, I think that I am screwing up the math. OP has 10 outs, 3 3's, 4's 6's or the 1 jack. He knows what 10 cards are, the 4 he holds the 4 on the board and the 2 cards he is pretty sure the villian has. Given this he has 10 outs out of 42. How does getting 3:1 justify the auto call?

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I don't think you are screwing up the math. If you could only see 2 of the your opponents hole cards and they indicated a made straight on the turn, the long term +EV decision would be to fold here. You have a ~24% chance of winning the pot and are putting in ~29% of the chips in order to do so with little in implied odds. (Your opponent is likely to check/fold any board pair, assuming he had more money for a river bet.)

However, if you open up your opponents hand range here to include two pair or a lower set, you only need him to have such hands a relatively small percentage of the time to turn this slightly -EV situation into a slighly +EV situation overall.

Also, the fact that you can't make any more "bad" decisions on the river, where the equity extremes are obviously the greatest also makes this an easier play, IMO.
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