[Buzz]

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But when it gets raised and reraised I think you need to adjust your outs.

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Hi Greg - Maybe in some situations, but what can they have here for their raises? This is a spade draw flop and a low draw flop. Hero has the nut spade draw, and also has a ten, which reduces the probability of an opponent holding top set by roughly a factor of three.

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BUT, what can your opponents be playing on with here with raises and reraises?

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Exactly.

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A strong low, a wrap, spades, sets, maybe two pair are the choices.

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Another choice is maybe they all don't know what they're doing. Maybe some of these opponents fit into the Mr. Magoo (or clueless) category.

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So it’s likely that some of your spades are gone, some of your wrap outs are gone,

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Yes, but some are gone anyway. Some of your outs are always located in the hands of your opponents (but some of the no-outs are located there too). The outs that are "gone" may be more concentrated in some hands that were originally dealt than others. The hands in which the gone outs are concentrated may be the ones that are involved in the action. But it's still pretty hard to see what any of Hero's opponents can hold to be jambing after this flop.

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The set will redraw 1 in 4 times, and the 9 will split sometimes, leaving you will about 8 effective outs here.

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Yes. Some of Hero's outs are in the hands of his opponents. But if you're going to put some of Hero's outs in the hands of opponents, then you also have to put some of Hero's non-outs in the hands of his opponents, (perhaps more concentrated in the hands of his opponents who have already folded).

Unless you trust an opponent to only be playing certain specific cards in a particular situation, the best you usually can do is base the probability on the cards you actually can see.

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So getting more money in the pot here is EV negative for you, but not enough to make folding better than calling.

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It's very easy to see how much of the fresh money going into the pot on the second betting round might belong to Hero. There are six players, Hero and his five opponents. Think of three of the players as contributing to the high half of the pot and the other three as contributing to the low half of the pot.

Think of Hero and two opponents as contributing to the high half of the pot (and the other three opponents as contributing to the low half of the pot).

Since Hero is playing for the high half of the pot, Hero's two opponents who are putting money into the same half of the pot as Hero are each contributing one dollar for each one dollar contributed by Hero. Thus Hero is getting two to one fresh money odds for his half of the pot.

Hero is also getting implied fresh money odds, since if Hero makes his spade flush on the turn he should be able to get at least two big bets additional put on his side of the pot split. So figure 6 small bets to 1 small bet as implied fresh money odds, but taking 3/4 of that (because from Hero's vantage point the board will pair on the river one time out of four), 4.5 to 1 is closer. His 4.5 to 1 implied fresh money odds are good enough for him to raise. However, if he raises, half the impled dollars apply to the call and the other half apply to the raise - and he ends up with only about 3 to 1 implied fresh money odds - and if he gets re-raised, less than that. In addition, he needs to exercise good judgement so as not to lose his potential customers.

At any rate, I think he clearly has odds to call but I don't think he wants to raise.

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and that the board pairing will lose it for you.

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Yes. That's figured into the 4.5:1 implied fresh money odds. (We reduced from 6:1 to 4.5:1 because of the possibility of the board pairing on the river).

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the 9 will split sometimes

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Good point. The non-spade nines will split sometimes. Let's figure the three non-spade nines as worth two outs. (2.3 would be closer to the truth, but rounding to the nearest whole number is close enough.) But all right, I agree ten outs is closer than eleven outs.

Since Hero is not losing anything with a nine, just winning less, the number of non-outs is still 34. So, all right, make it 34 to 10 instead of 34 to 11.

Buzz