[gergery]

Hmm, I agree with calling preflop and calling the first flop bet. But when it gets raised and reraised I think you need to adjust your outs.

When it comes back around on the flop, the pot is 8.5BBs with you and then the raiser to act. Assuming MP3 will call you must risk 1BB to win 9.5BB. However, there will be a low enabled something like 85% of the time. So .85*9.5 +.15*4.25 gets you something like ~ 5:1 odds on your hand. Working backward, you need to have ~8 outs for a call to be correct. You have 8 spades and 3 9’s, and I’ll toss in a runner-runner boat and round it to an even 12 outs. BUT, what can your opponents be playing on with here with raises and reraises? A strong low, a wrap, spades, sets, maybe two pair are the choices. So it’s likely that some of your spades are gone, some of your wrap outs are gone, and that the board pairing will lose it for you.

The set will redraw 1 in 4 times, and the 9 will split sometimes, leaving you will about 8 effective outs here. Now, your odds will improve somewhat if you are accurate in putting your opponents on these hands, and they could certainly have set over set over set or two lows such that all your outs are good and there are no redraws. And you have implied odds.

So you are getting enough odds to call, but not by a lot – this seems slightly/moderately profitable to me.

And if there are raises, then you are putting in 1 bet to win about 2.2 bets (6 new bets likely discount for split pot, minus your bet) but you likely don’t have the effective outs to make that pay out. So getting more money in the pot here is EV negative for you, but not enough to make folding better than calling.

Btw, thanks for all your posts on this stuff buzz, thinking thru why I agree/disagree with you has made me a much better player.

--Greg