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Old 10-14-2005, 11:27 AM
sofere sofere is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: NYC
Posts: 118
Default Re: HH - excessive tightness versus bubble push?

I didn't look at anyone elses responses before I posted this, curious what other people's takes are.

IMHO, easy call. You having both the other guys covered is key.

Lets go through button's perspective first. If he folds, you are definitely gonna go in with any 2 getting 2.5:1 and he'll have a 50/50 shot of getting in the money. So he "should" have a better than average hand, but that doesn't mean premium. I'd guess there's a 55-60% chance that he busts BB. You're ITM with 2xbb, or still on the bubble with shorty blinded all-in in 2 hands. So if you fold, I'd say you're about 80% to be ITM with very little chance of moving up in places.

However, you have both players covered. If you call you're probably ahead (I'd guess around 55-60% against his range). If BB folds and you win, you're a lock for 2nd with a chance for first. If BB folds and you lose, BB is all-in next hand and has a 50-50 shot of busting before the blinds hit you. So if you call and BB folds, you have as much chance of getting ITM as if you folded, but you have a far greater chance of moving up places.

If both you and BB calls, BB has to beat both of you to finish ITM. Worst case scenario, BB wins main pot, Button wins side pot. Button now has 1 BB left (The main pot is 4.5BB side pot is 1 BB) and is blinded all-in next BB and you have a 50-50 shot of finishing ITM.

So by calling, you have at least the same chance of finishing ITM, but a much greater chance of moving up. Easy Call.
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