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Old 01-15-2005, 05:01 AM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 66
Default Re: A Microsoft Interview Question (aka basic Bayes\' Theorem)

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Wrong, You are 50/50 to die if you don't spin, but spinning has only a 1/6 chance of dieing now, since one of the roudns has been fired, and can now be considered empty.


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Thank you for pointing out that triviality for those who missed it. However, when I said "The 1/3 chance to die from spinning..." I still referred to the original situation, spinning with 2 bullets in the gun.

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But I agree, leaving is the best idea.

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That wasn't my point at all. I pointed out that the two variants must have probabilities differing from 1/3 in opposite directions. That is not trivial.
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