Re: JJ, early-mid tourney Party 20+2
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Bet 500 - if he had a hand he'd have to protect it unless he had the Kc or Qc w/ it (like AK w/ Kc) - if he pushes back then I'm hard pressed to think of a hand I'm ahead of or can outdraw and have to lay it down (if you've seen him pop w/ air then you could factor that in, I assume w/o reads that he hasn't been out of line). Can't see checking as I'm vulnerable and have to call any reasonable turn bet he'd lead with - betting allows me to set the price and may take the pot down right there. If he calls I'll look to check it down.
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If he pushes back, its only ~750 more for me to call. The pot is 750+875+500=2125 so i'm getting 2.8 to 1. With 10 outs I can probably assume are good... I think I pretty much have to call as I'm getting about .8 of that 2.8 as overlay. Nevermind that he could be bluffing (though it seems unlikey I guess, then again its a 20+2).
I agree with your line though, that's probably what I would do, maybe 600 instead but whatever.
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