Re: Am I drawing dead?
[ QUOTE ]
I'm positive that it's not "just you" but it just so happens you are in fact wrong..
[/ QUOTE ]
This seems very weak tight to me...villain could check raise the flop with a variety of hands that coincide with his turn bet. His range includes, but is probably not limited to QJ (top pair/open ended str8 draw), JT, J8, AJ, TT, 88, T8, AA/KK (slowplayed), a flopped straight (Q9/97) Remember..villain is loose, so all of these hands are not outside of his range. His turn bet is either a full house that wants you to make a flush, or a weak hand that is looking for a cheap showdown in a big pot, so I don't think the turn bet is out of line for any of villain's holdings except for maybe a straight.
Most of these hands will make a crying river call of a 1/3-1/2 pot sized bet on the river in this size of a pot...calls a loose player is probalby going to make, but almost all of the losing ones will check behind, so my default play here would be to block/value bet the river and fold to a raise, but hero is not deep enough for that. If he bets $50 and gets raised, he only has to put in $50 more, so my default play changes to either push all-in or bet smaller and be prepared to go broke.
I don't give up >1 buy-in pots with a flush unless I have a real good reason to (double paired board...3 of a kind board... or I have a deeper stack than the pot and am put all-in on the river and I have a read that villain wouldn't do this with a hand I beat) and I can't find one
|