Thread: 2-5 88 Hand
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Old 09-02-2004, 11:21 AM
Zag Zag is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 515
Default Re: 2-5 88 Hand

I agree that the turn is where you made the mistake. I could see you folding here, calling planning to call the river, or raising planning to fold to a reraise or a river bet. What you did made no sense. If you thought he was bluffing, you should have stuck with it. If you weren't prepared to call the river, you should have folded the turn. It mostly looks to me like you called the turn praying that he was bluffing AND that he would give it up on the river.

From his point of view, preflop I worry about AA played for the limp-reraise in EP. That's why I raised preflop, to get you to commit and I can get out if I need to. Also, I figure that, if you really have a drawing hand, you were hoping for more customers and maybe I can just buy it right here, since you probably won't want to play it heads up. Depending on my image of you, I might do this with any two cards.

When you don't reraise the flop and then you check the flop and just call the turn, I put you on A7s, A4s or A5s, or else a small-med pair that has missed. When the river hits I'm hoping your small pair isn't 66 and I still think I can steal it. Either that or I have QQ and I'm hoping your small pair is 66 and I can break you.

I think that he would have bet the flop on a complete miss (i.e. AK or AJ), though maybe he was actually trying for a check-raise bluff. More likely I think he has A7, JJ, or TT, or else a monster. When you failed to bet the flop, he is betting the turn for value, thinking that his second pair / underpair is good (or knowing that his QQ is definitely good). I suspect that, if he is bluffing, he will fire again on the river. On the turn, you need to make a decision whether or not to call him down or give up now.

I do think that most people would have bet a little less on the river with a monster. I would have been more frightened of a $100 - $120 bet, here, unless you are a real calling station.
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