[Yerma]

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Add in the times that you get 3-bet on the turn, and waiting becomes by far the best play. The argument "he might fold to the turn raise" isn't valid here because he would have also folded to a river raise and he would have put 1 BB more into the middle by doing so.

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I have a question for you on this point. And this is only important for the bluff raise with 98s, not the other raise with AK. When I think about this question, the bluff is more powerful on the turn. You are asking the other guy whether he wants to spend 2 more bets when you do it on the turn, rather than one more bet when you do it on the river. But the cost to you is the same (within 0.2BB as you pointed out). And also practically, when you are up against Kx or a medium pocket pair, they dump more often on the turn, but nearly always call the river, right?

This is all another reason that I'd pick a two-tone board to raise the AK on the turn rather than the river. Yes, on the two-tone board you are sometimes though not always missing out on 1BB on the river if you are facing a bluff, but it's too predictable to always wait for the river to raise. Maybe this is a more important detail against a player who is capable of folding a mediocre made hand to a raise.

I suspect this is all worth not trying to squeeze that 1 BB on the river by bluff-raising on the river instead. I wonder if you've worked it out in more detail and I am wrong though?