[bills217]

Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky

I had planned on playing Louisville pretty much all week, and anticipated that the spread would be around U of L -6...so you can imagine how I feel about this line. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Louisville will no doubt be a big public play here (WOW Louisville is undefeated Kentucky just lost by 26 DOH they're giving money away!!!)...BUT, they're also the sharp play, and I'm about to tell you why.

This line is what it is, presumably, for a couple reasons:

1) Louisville hasn't played anyone. (Valid.)
2) Rupp Arena is a tough place to play for the opposing team. (Myth, will explain.)
3) Kentucky is desperate, and might be somewhat rejuvenated by the announcement of Randolph Morris' reinstatement. (Somewhat valid.)
4) UK can't really be this bad, can they? (They are.)

Little-known fact: in the Tubby Smith era, Kentucky plays worse at home in Rupp Arena than on the road or at neutral sites. This is not an anomaly.

There are 2 reasons for this:

1) Kentucky doesn't practice in Rupp Arena, because it is not a UK-owned facility, and is used for many other events.

2) The hype and pressure surrounding Kentucky basketball in Lexington and throughout the state is absolutely incredible...it's much easier to play in front of 10,000 indifferent fans in Starkville than it is to play at Rupp Arena in front of 24,000 rednecks that paid big $$$ for their season tickets and want to lynch you after every turnover. (I'm a born-and-bred Kentuckian so I can say this and get away w/ it.)

This effect is only exacerbated when things are going badly, and well, right now they're pretty bad.

Kentucky has struggled at home against Lipscomb (yep, Lipscomb), lost to Iowa at a neutral site, lost to a laughably young UNC squad at home, and last Saturday suffered a 79-53 drubbing at the hands of an Indiana team that just days earlier lost to Indiana State. And Larry Bird no longer suits up for the Sycamores.

UK has been soundly beaten in their biggest home game each of the past 2 seasons (Kansas without Simien last year, and Louisville the year before).

Kentucky is desperate for a win. But this is the biggest rivalry in college basketball...both teams are ALWAYS desperate to win this game, and Louisville and Rick Pitino are still steaming over a very controversial call that gave Patrick Sparks 3 free throws to seal a dramatic comeback win for the Cats in last year's game.

A desperate Rick Pitino is dangerous. He's one of the most competitive individuals I've ever seen...he'd kill a newborn litter of puppies with his bare hands to win most any game, and he'd tack on a litter of kittens for good measure to win this one. Not to mention he's hands-down the best coach in the game...has taken U of L from 9 wins to the Final Four to perennial juggernaut almost overnight.

Tubby Smith is just as desperate. But the difference is, he's incompetent. (You casual NCAABB fans need to know this. Do not listen to the bobbleheads. Tubby Smith is an awful coach and a worse recruiter. He couldn't recruit OOT posters to go to the Playboy Mansion.)

Mix Tubby's coaching with very little talent, and you have a team that's not very good. Our best player, point guard Rajon Rondo, is a non-threat to score unless it's a layup or dunk. He can be ignored completely from 12 feet and out. The other huge weakness is the lack of even a semi-competent post player, and Pitino will exploit this.

The attitude among UK and U of L die hards alike this week was that UK had little if any chance to win.

So this line is basically shocking to me. Bet it all on the Cards. If I haven't convinced you by now, I never will. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

"You can sleep in the car, but you can't drive your house." -The Immortal Scalf

(What's that, you say? If Kentucky actually has a homecourt DISadvantage, why not fade them every game at home? By all means, do! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Especially against quality teams in pressure-packed games, i.e. Louisville, UNC, Kansas, etc., and even moreso when they're struggling like they are now. Unfortunately, most of the time they're playing Campbell, Lipscomb, or an SEC nobody...it's a more of a crapshoot then, but in all seriousness, still not a bad idea.)