[elindauer]

Hi Gabe,

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With you’re first figure 1.125, it looks like you took 1.5*.75. The blinds in 30/60 are usually 30 and 20.

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You're right. I used the 15/30 structure from partypoker, since I didn't know the answer.

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So it should be 1.67 when you pick up the blinds from out of the blinds, and 1.00 when you’re in the SB and .67 when you’re in the BB. Using you’re estimate of winning the blinds 75% of the time: 1.67*.75=1.25

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FYP, I think.

I did it the way I did so I wouldn't have to treat the SB and BB independently. I just paid the blinds up front (-1.66 * 4) and then look at everything after that as pure profit. It's no more correct, just easier this way I think.


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“3% of the time the BB draws to an ace and catches, winning 7SB from us (conservative estimate)”

“.6% of the time BB draws to pocket pair and flops a set, winning 9 SB from us (pretty conservative)”

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I’m pretty sure the minimax in the first example is 7sb and the second example is 8sb.

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Yeah, I was making the very conservative estimate that the KK would allow a turn check-raise on a non-ace-high board, since I knew this would exclude anyone from drawing and feeling they could frequently call the flop and see the river, complicating the math. I agree that an improvement on this strategy is probably possible, I was just being conservative.

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I think you’re right, in that the SB should call a raise with an A, but you should gain from this, right?

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No, if he's calling correctly, you're losing. I think the strategy improvements I described at the end of my post outweigh these finer adjustments to the EV calculation though. Call it $1000 - $1100 / hr.


Thanks,
Eric