[Gabe]

You really gave this some thought. The only things I don‘t quite follow are:

“That's $1140 / hr, but we have to pay the blinds ($45 * 4), leaving a net profit of $960 / hr, or .4 BB / hand.”

“75% of the time we win the blinds for 1.125 SB / hand”

You’re, essentially, paying a 2sb blind every hand, since you’ll always be putting in at least 2sb’s pre-flop. The only time, the fact that you’re in the blinds, matters much is when you just pick up the blinds.

With you’re first figure 1.125, it looks like you took 1.5*.75. The blinds in 30/60 are usually 30 and 20. So it should be 1.67 when you pick up the blinds from out of the blinds, and 1.00 when you’re in the SB and .67 when you’re in the BB. Using you’re estimate of winning the blinds 75% of the time: 1.84*.75=1.38

One small thing, that is going to have really not going to change the bottom line, is:

“3% of the time the BB draws to an ace and catches, winning 7SB from us (conservative estimate)”

“.6% of the time BB draws to pocket pair and flops a set, winning 9 SB from us (pretty conservative)”

I’m pretty sure the minimax in the first example is 7sb and the second example is 8sb.

I think you’re right, in that the SB should call a raise with an A, but you should gain from this, right?