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Old 12-24-2005, 02:55 PM
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Default Re: OK, these are the hands that may be costing me an extra 2BBs each

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You know, I'd rather not talk about the specific hand, but the situation. What do should I be doing when I get 3bet on the turn with TPTK or other such hands. I'm not worried about the hyper-agros whom I'll be calling down, but what about unknowns, donks, and respectables? What should I be doing?

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Cardsharp, IMO you should call down against an unknown, there is enough retarded aggression happening online where you cant release this strong of a hand even in this unfortunate situation.

You know its funny, Ive pondered this problem before awhile back. The problem being, should I call down a 3 bet on the turn if I checkraise the turn with a TPTK type hand against an unknown, or should I just avoid this confrontation all together and 3 bet the flop and lead the turn. After thinking about this situation for a while I came to a realization that made me smile inside and now I dont really worry about this sitaution anymore.

What I realized is that even if you always call down a 3 bet against an unknown and payoff with the 2nd best hand, waiting til the turn to checkraise can still be a better strategy than 3 betting the flop and leading. Heres my analysis on the situation.

When you 3 bet and lead and it works, you will win 7 small bets from your opponent using this strategy. 3sbs on the flop, 2sbs on the turn, and 2sbs on the river.(I know the villain could fold the turn or river but to keep the anaysis simple assume he calls down)

When you 3 bet the flop and it fails you will lose 8 small bets if the villain caps the flop and you call down, or you will lose 9 small bets if the villain calls the flop 3 bet and raises the turn, assuming you call down. To make things simple lets assume you lose 8.5 small bets on average when you are against a better hand.

So using the 3 bet and lead strategy, you win 7 small bets when you have the best hand and you lose 8.5 small bets when the villain has the best hand.

Now on to the call flop-checkraise turn strategy. When this works you will win 8 small bets from your opponent. 2 on the flop 4 on the turn and 2 on the river. When it fails you will lose 10 small bets.

So using the turn checkraise strategy you win 8 small bets when you have the best hand and you lose 10 small bets when the villain has the best hand.

Now lets assume that in both scenarios you run into a better hand 20% of the time and 80% of the time you have the better hand.(again to keep anaysis simple, ignore situations where either side outdraws the other)

3betting strategy yields: 7(.8) - 8.5(.2) = 3.9 small bets

Checkraise turn strategy: 8(.8) - 10(.2) = 4.4 small bets

So the checkraise turn strategy makes more money in this scenario. Does this mean you should wait to checkraise the turn every time? No, in fact most of the time you should be 3betting and leading since you are OOP, and dont want to give a free card, or becuz there are too many bad cards that can come on the turn and ruin the checkraise strategy.

The main point I was trying to make is that I wouldnt worry about calling down too much in this situation when you checkraise the turn becuz even if you call down every time against an unknown you will still make more money, than if you 3 bet the flop and lead. So anyone who always 3 bets the flop and leads becuz they dont want to face a turn 3 bet situation is giving up too much IMO.

I would also like to point out that with your hand AQ on an Q97 board, I would 3 bet and lead every time becuz given this board texture the probability that the villain may check behind on a draw is too high and there are too many bad cards that can hit the turn that would make waiting to checkraise incorrect IMO, if any T,J,8,K hits the turn checkraising may be too risky. Some examples where I will almost always use the checkraise turn strategy against an unknown is if I have AK and the flop is K73r, or A72r, or I have AQ and the flop is Q73r, in all these situations the villain is very unlikely to check behind on the turn and there are very few turn bad turn cards for us. In these situations waiting to checkraise the turn will make more money than the 3 bet lead line in the long run against an Unknown IMO.
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