[soah]

When he checked on the flop I really felt like he had nothing at all. On the turn I bet weak to hopefully induce a bluff raise, because I felt like he was bad enough to fall for it. Since my read was that he had nothing, I simply called his raise and hoped for a river bluff.

As soon as I did it, I realized I'd picked a bad board to try it on since there are eight huge scare cards that could hit on the river (putting four broadway cards out). But alas, it was too late to go back. On the river I still felt like he was on a bluff and insta-called before actually taking the time to think. He only had about $70 left after his bet. If I'd realized that, I would have just pushed and hoped he had an ace or something. If he'd been deeper then I think raising is a lot more dubious since the two main possibilities here are that he either is bluffing or flopped a set and tried to slowplay.

As it turns out, my analysis of his hand was correct, yet I still may have misplayed. He had J2 of hearts for the turned monster draw which missed on the river. Pushing over top of his turn raise would have been roughly a pot sized raise. It certainly would protect my hand, but it would also prevent him from bluffing the river.

For simplicity we'll assume that he had exactly one pot sized bet left in his stack after the turn raise, and if I don't push, he will bet half pot on any river. I don't remember if I held any hearts or if the ace or king on board was a heart, so we'll assume one heart was dead. That leaves 8 flush outs and 3 gutshot outs and 44 cards left in the deck. He is exactly 25% to hit on the river. If he will call the turn push more than 50% of the time, then pushing the turn is my best EV. If he will correctly fold to my turn push more than 50% of the time, then calling and letting him bluff the river is my best option. I have no idea if he would have called a turn push.