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Old 12-05-2005, 11:30 PM
coltrane coltrane is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 2
Default Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20

hey man,

as others have already alluded to, there's a lot to this hand that depends on info very specific to the dynamic between you and villain (what does he think of you, what does he think you think of him, etc.)......also important is not just that he's "aggro" or "tricky", but what his specific tendencies are.....

for example.....is he aggro in the sense that he likes to checkraise a lot with nothing on the turn?....in this case I'd agree with you that a weak bet might've been nice on the turn.....or, is he tricky in the sense that he might make some loose preflop calls, but then generally won't make a big checkraise without the goods?....or, does he like to bluff the river if you check the turn?.....or, is his river bet always for value?.....will he call a raise with worse hands?.....does he think you're capable of a bluff-raise?...you see where I'm going.....

stack sizes are somewhat an issue, but not really that much....reason being, I think you have more than enough left to make a river raise without being committed (i.e. - if you make it 1200 you could still comfortably fold to a push)...I agree with what CWL said about the fact that you do sometimes need to make some seemingly brave value bets against these hot shots and not just shell up and call when you have a strong hand......I disagree with him though about the range that villain would push all-in with after your river raise.....I think there's a very low probability that villain pushes with any worse hand.....even if he thinks you could have AK, he's also not a donk and he knows you could have three aces or the nuts, etc. so I don't think he pushes with 97/etc.......a lot of people need to remember that this is a live game and not online - players tend to not overplay their hands as much.....
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