Re: Folding the nuts?
This is a math problem. Effective stacks are ~12000 at the start of the hand and the pot on the turn is ~4000.
First off, assume villain has a flush draw and the Ace:
This means that 19.6% of the time hero loses his 10000 chip call on the turn,
.196(10000) = -1960 chips
80.4% of the time the pot splits and hero gets 2000 chips,
.804(2000) = +1608 chips
Given these numbers, then hero should fold if he/she believes that villian has the nut flush draw here greater than 82% of the time (1608/1960).
All that said, given the nature of the hand, the stacksizes, and the bad spot it leaves you in if you lose, you should fold.
mj
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