Re: Quick thoughts, more later
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As I said before, I think it's very likely the first caller does not have an Ace.
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I've been following this discussion, and this was one sticking point for me as well. I thought about it some more. I agree that HJ is likely to call with hands worse than an ace here. But given the action, especially on the turn, shouldn't most of these hands be heavily discounted, if not outright eliminated, from the hand range?
Maybe the turn action is not black and white. I don't know how often UTG, or a typical player in this game, checks this turn planning to raise a big hand. Maybe HJ would check some non-ace hands that call the river, fearing this...otherwise, I would assume he value bets most or all non-ace hands that call this river.
If uncertainty exists, I guess it would support the call perspective to some estimable extent, but I'm not all that uncertain given the action. Unless my assumption is terrible (for this game, it may be), I don't see how HJ can have a worse hand to call with so often.
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