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Old 12-06-2005, 08:14 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 598
Default Re: Chase the low draw?

Boolean - I think you want to see the flop as cheaply as possible with this starting hand. Ideally you want to see the flop for one small bet. That's because whether to continue or not is highly dependent on the flop, and because pre-flop raises tend to come from hands with better low possibilities (A24X, A35X, etc.). You might raise yourself with the hand if you raise a lot with A2XY (to disguise raises with A2XY), but you should generally hate to limp and then call a raise.

Trouble is, from MP1, you can't very well tell if there will be a raise behind you. One could make a good case for folding your 2d3d4h6d hand before the flop from MP1.

The above written, in a passive game, (rightly or wrongly) I'd probably limp and hope for the best from MP1 holding 2d3d4h6d. (But you can make a good case for folding 2d3d4h6d from mid-position).

Well... you did limp and then got raised. Ugh. At any rate, you call the raise and the raising ends there. Fine.

Now the flop comes with good news and bad news. The good news is there's an ace on the flop. The bad news is there are only 195 two-card combinations possible on the turn and river that make you the nut low. That's out of 990 possible two-card combinations. (Never a guarantee I counted perfectly - but 195 seems about right).

There are also some two-card combinations that make a non-nut low for you, but after a flop where you have no reasonable chance at high, you don't really want to count back-door non-nut low draws as worth much.

At any rate, after this flop you have about one chance in five of making the nut low for half (or less) of the pot. It's not a good enough chance to continue. The point is, when all you have is a backdoor low draw, you simply don't have favorable odds to continue.

Therefore you should fold after this flop.

But you continue and the turn is favorable, so again you continue. Fine. (Whatever you should have done on the previous betting round is water over the dam).

[ QUOTE ]
When I made my low, I decided to go for a check-raise here, figuring I probably have half the pot at this point. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

After two checks with just one player yet to act, I think betting directly is your best course of action, better than going for a check-raise. You have a better chance of scooping if you bet directly (with everybody folding to your bet - happens quite a bit, actually).

More likely you will get half the pot three times out of five and a quarter or sixth of the pot two times out of five - (something like that).

Buzz
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