[DesertCat]

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Jim Rogers is a billionaire many times over and was called the best securities analysis professor in the country by Warren Buffett.

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As I said, he's brilliant. But his maneuver into commodities didn't come with the same basic protections you'd have with any stock brokerage account. And he and his clients are paying for it now.



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Jim Rogers and Marc Faber are true value investors. They buy when things are cheap and sell when they are expensive. Equities in other parts of the world are significantly cheaper than they are in the US. US equities are extremely expensive by historical standards. These are empirical facts.

But don't take my word for it. Take the advice of "market timers" like Warren Buffett, George Soros, Paul Volcker, Bill Gross, Sir John Templeton, and Steven Roach who have all expressed similar views in recent years.

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Calling trends in commodities prices is hardly a value investor type of viewpoint.

And Buffett, Templeton, Gross, etc, have all been concerned about how expensive the market is for anywhere from ten to twenty years. A stopped clock is right twice a day too.

Value investors have shown they have no great predictive ability for market moves. Sure, the market is expensive by historical standards, but that doesn't help you figure when it will get cheap again. And historical standards don't take into account factors like todays capital gains rates and interest rate levels that can change what's cheap or not.

I have an acquaintance who's a value investor. He became convinced that we were in the middle of a housing bubble (and showed me compelling facts to support his contention), so he rented his home instead of buying it. Five years ago! It's turned out to be a horrible, horrible decision.