Re: 20-40 Taj Hand...Time to get creative or do you have to hit?
In all my vast experience of making turn re-raise semi-bluffs vs. possible re-stealing turn check-raisers, I have found that, since I have position, one of the key advantages is having a hand with which I can take a free showdown. I am glad you noticed this...I was testing you. [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img] (okay...I never thought of it!)
Really the fact that a bluff bet on the end is practically hopeless, yet also perhaps +EV, reduces the benefits of making this play on the turn. Similarly, he could have a bigger draw, a set which fills up and flushes you, he could re-raise you back on the turn, etc.
Nonetheless, if you think he will fold a decent percentage of the time (and I agree, his play does stink of a resteal), folding something like 1 time out of 5, this is still a good play, me thinks. Even without doing the EV analysis, your chances of winning has now gone up to about 40%. (20% for the flush, 20% for the fold) Sure, calling and folding if you miss is clearly +EV, but so is raising, and I think more so.
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