[JayCo]

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No offense, but you realize while you might get some decent play out of this, you will ultimately lose this money. I would say the ROR on something like this is high 90%s. Way too much variance in poker to handle 5 buyins.

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No offense taken. The only reaction on this board has been to warn me off and/or gently suggest I'm crazy, so you have company [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. But I do respectfully disagree.

2 thoughts:

1) Bear in mind whenever I go below 5 buy-ins, I'll be dropping down a level. So effectively I'll have significantly more than 5 buyins. For example, I'm at $160 now. To bust now I'd effectively have to finish out of the money in 15 consecutive tournaments ($160 -$22x3$=94, -$11x4=$50, -$6x8=$2). Is this very possible? Of course. Is the probability >95%? No.

2) Let's compromise and say my ROR is actually 90% and not in the "high 90s". So I have a 90% chance of busting, and a 10% of reaching my current goal of $1,000. EV = 90% x $-30 + 10% x +$970 = +$70. If you can humor me and play along that my ROR is actually 60% - 80%, then my EV jumps to $170 to $370.

Yes, yes, I know, it would safer, easier, and generally more sane to try to clear $70 or even $370 by playing in $10-$30 SNGs with a 25-30% ROI. I would also be willing to bet that even at the lower RORs, doing the SLC will not maximize my EV. But it is a great diversion from the poker routine. Plus I might learn something.


The Side Wager:

So if I actually make it to the $200 buy-in level, I have a proposed wager. To show it wasn't a fluke, I'll offer to back a solid SNG player on 2+2 that will agree to give it a shot (Lori would be my pick). If they agree, I'll put up the starting $30 in return for a small piece of the action.

If someone we agree on is interested will try it, our bet would be on whether they make it to the $200 level on the first try. If they do, then you'd agree to reimburse me the $30. If not, I'll sponsor you $30 so you can give it a shot if you want.

Edit: Of course, I'm just feeling cocky because I'm back onto the $30 rung
17 SNGs: 56% ITM, 111% ROI, Avg=3.8
DOWN to $20 rung:
17) $160, $20+$2, 1 -> $238
UP to $30 rung:
18) $238, $30+$, ?