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Old 12-28-2005, 08:20 PM
W. Deranged W. Deranged is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 96
Default Re: T8s, 5-10 Live, trapped on flop

I think the interesting question here is whether to call the two on the flop the first time. Everything else seems pretty standard.

As for the flop call:

You will be getting 11-1 on a flop call immediately. You can expect calls from those who have put one in already, so effectively your odds are more like 12.5-1. But you open yourself up to getting three-bet; if you are three-bet, your effective odds will be more like 10-1 or so, and even worse if you get capped.

So let's look at it from the point of view of needing 11-1 to proceed.

Your implied odds here are somewhat reduced because you will hit and lose pretty regularly, particularly as heavy flop action may already indicate QT or a set.

You need basically 4 outs on the nose to make the call correct at 11-1. You have 5 at most. Considering the possibility of a set, QT, or J9, I am positive you do NOT have 4 outs here on average on the flop.

So the flop is a fold.
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