Re: Overdoing it?
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I'd fold to the first turn bet. You raised PF, you raised his flop bet, and now he's betting out again. He doesn't seem to be worried about the strength you represent. You say he makes aggressive plays, but how aggressive? It sure seems like a pair of 9s isn't good here. You have a gutshot, but not the odds to call for it getting 6.25:1.
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I am curious how many outs you would estimate we have when this aggressive player first bets out on the turn.
At most we have 4 outs to the gutshot and 5 more outs to two pair or three of a kind (another ten puts four to a straight on board though). There's a chance that he has a ten as well in which case we're drawing to a split for the gutshot. But I don't think there is any real evidence to suspect him having a ten when he donkbets the turn.
I always find it tough to put aggressive players on a hand. But in this case I would estimate 3 outs for the gutshot and 3 more for two pair or better. And with the extra bet on the river you are getting 7:1 in implied odds.
So I think the decision to call on his first turn bet is close, even if we're assuming that we're behind. I'm surprised Hero folded after the three bet getting 10:1 though. I think I call down too much against LAG players like this hoping he's overplaying his hand.
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