[rwperu34]

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You project him at 33.8 BRAR in 2006 at the age of 32. Let's say 31 BRAR in 2007 at 33. At age 34 project 27 and at age 35 project 23.

bernie williams

32 52 brar
33 59
34 23
35 26

so damon loses 12% of his offense from 33 -34, and williams loses over 50%.........right...................



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Nice to pick one player and compare Damon to him. I choose Tim Raines. He would have been projected at 35.8 going into age 32 and produced 33.5 from 32-35.

I've got a better idea. Let's figure a normal decline. There is a chance that Damon is still producing at his current level at the age of 35. There is a chance he'll be out of baseball. When I say 23 BRAR at age 35, I'm assuming a slow decline. The problem is, there is rarely a slow decline. So 23 would have to be an average of all of the possible outcomes. If you want to provide some stats on the EV of a players decline, I will listen.

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Furcal cashes in at 2.24 expected BRAR per million, However, he plays a premium position and apprently very well.

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Yes, Furcal is a better signing. But to defend the Furcal signing you can't say the Damon signing is:

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awful. period.

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or

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by year 3 this deal will be horrific not just bad.

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or

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"3rd grade math would tell you the 'deal' is horrible"

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giles:

61.6 expected BRAR @ 10m = 6 runs per million which is a GREAT DEAL, even if you factor in his age.

the fact that you even brought his name into this discussion puzzles me. his deal is the polar opposite of damons.


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It's about decline. Of course if Giles continues to produce at his current level, this is a great deal for the Pads. I just don't understand how Damon can be expected to decline significantly when he will be 35 at the end of his contract yet Giles will continue to produce when he will be 35 at the begining. In my mind, Giles is a bigger risk at the end of the contract, but a better value at the begining. When you weigh everything together, you can't say the Giles signing is THAT much better. Unless of course you are in "win now" mode and discount greatly the crapiness at the end of the contract [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]