Thread: odds???
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Old 10-08-2005, 11:30 AM
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Default Re: odds???

[ QUOTE ]
Well, the hands that beat you are any hand with a King as well as 66, 63, and 33.
Chance that he has a king is:
(3*46)/C(47,2)=~13%
Chances he has 66 or 33:
2*C(3,2)/C(47,2)=~.6%
Chances he has 63:
3*3/C(47,6)=~.8%
So the chnace that you are beat is ~14.4% So you will have the best hand ~85.6% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea how to an analysis this complex (or even if it's worthwhile) but I want to point that your analysis is a long way from the true figure. This is because

- There are 3 opponents seeing the flop, not one.
- 10 people were dealt pocket cards, not three, and the rubbish hands like 93 have folded, whereas AK, KQ, KJ, maybe Kx are very likely to call. So you're dealing with a pool of 9 potential K hands, not 3.
- The higher pocket pairs 88-AA weren't included.

These three factors shift the numbers WAY down, probably well below 50% odds of having the best hand.
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