[adanthar]

Sorry about the late response, but here it is:

First, even an aggressive stack will not be raising every hand. If he's raising literally EVERY hand, all the more reason not to call, because he'll be called soon; either he'll win and you'll make the final table or he'll lose and you'll have FE again.

Right now, I basically play any MTT's I can find with an overlay, from $20 to $200. I've never seen a final table on which at least 2-3 people didn't limp, minraise, etc. Even on the sites with the strongest cores of MTT players, it just doesn't happen. Maybe the Party 109's are specifically that hard, I don't know.

As to the hand, all the ICM does is count up how much each chip you have is worth. Here, my guess is the ICM will say that your 8 BB are actually worth somewhere around a sixth or seventh place finish or so. I know that you aren't playing for sixth or seventh, but the point is you have more equity in the prize pool than you probably realize, and the 'each additional chip is worth less' idea should be given the greatest weight at final tables due to the payout structure that, up until a certain point, rewards waiting. (If you had half the chips in play, you'd still only be worth around third place.)

The ICM is flawed because it ignores the effect of having a big stack and FE and assumes everyone is equally skilled. However, precisely because you still probably have some FE (not to mention the 'he called all in with A5o???' factor), won't have a big stack by doubling up, and are more skilled than everyone else there, you shouldn't be taking a 45% chance of eleventh place money and a 55% of doubling your equity to something like fourth to sixth. (For exact numbers I'd have to look at the payouts and stacks.)