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Old 12-18-2003, 12:16 AM
MicroBob MicroBob is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: memphis
Posts: 1,245
Default Re: Long Run Probability Question

as i understand it.....yes, at some point you can hit zero....the following ideas are from a total amateur so please keep that in mind and feel free to disagree.

if you bet an infinite number of times then this should account for ALL possibilities. this would include the extremely unlikely possibility that you will lose 1-billion bets in a row. obviously, the odds of this happening are ridiculously remote, however it needs to be remembered that infinity is pretty damn big.

in fact, there should also be a spot where you lose 999,999,999 hands in a row followed by winning 999,999,999 hands in a row.

it's something like the monkey randomly typing out shakespeare if it were able to type into infinity.

however, i suspect the odds of getting to see this (either the monkey typing shakespeare OR 1-billion losses in a row) would still be extremely slim even if you were able to roll the dice 100x per second (or have the monkey type 100 keys per second) for 1-trillion years.

sooooo....unless you plan on playing for a REALLLLLLLLY long time, you needn't worry about quite so much about busting out as long as you are playing a winning game.

is this the general concept you were trying to get at??
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