[ZeroPointMachine]

See what you think of this concept.

I believe that ICM overstates your EVfold in these super shortstack situations. When you have ~2 BB and a few hands between you and the BB it is a given that you are calling from the big blind if you don’t push first. Right? I would argue that the true Evfold from UTG is actually the EV of calling from the BB. You pickup a tiny bit of EV for each position better than UTG due to the chance of picking up a real hand.

Calculating the EV of calling from your future BB hand is difficult, but a couple of examples give a pretty good idea of what your looking at.

Here’s a fairly optimistic scenario for your 499t stack in the 300 BB. You get put all-in by one player with a top 50% hand. Your random hand has 35% chance of winning and an EV of 12.9% if you win. This gives you an EV of 4.5% equity.

Against two players who put you in and check it down things are worse even if they only have top 50% hands. Your random hand has only an 18% of winning and an EV of 21.2% if you win. This gives you an EV of 3.8% equity.

These numbers are way below the 6.1% equity you supposedly had by folding in the cutoff.

In the hand from OP if you put the BB on a call any 2 range and the SB and BTN on “maniac” you still get an EV for pushing of 5.8%. I suggest that this is far greater than your “real” EV for folding.