Re: Small Pairs in BB
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There are very many probabilities that need to be taken into account when considering this move. All of this is ultimately complicated, mathematically-intense game theory, and I have done none of the math. However, bear with me.
Off the top of my head, here are just a few of the things you have to approximate the probabilities of simply to come up with whether this is a profitable game-theory decision:
1: How often will the opponent fold to a pot sized bet?
2: How much of the time will you be called with nothing, leading to a difficult second-barrel turn decision?
2a. In how much of those turn situations will you continue to fire, and how much will your opponent fold on the turn?
2b. What level of coordination or high-card combination / turn card will you use to make the determination whether to fire the second barrel with essentially nothing?
3: How often will you be bluff-raised on the flop by nothing or by a speculative hand?
4: What is the range of hands the opponent will open with?
5: What is the optimal % of a reraise here if the answer to #2 is such that he will usually not be able to take a reraise?
There are many others. Add these to the shania considerations that are abound. If your opponent knows you reraise with 22 will he pay off your AA when you do it the next time?
My main point is that "call and pot the flop" is not a coherent strategy. I usually make money in poker through position and selectively applied pressure. Calling out of position and betting can be done with essentially any two cards -- the only difference is that here you will flop a set once in eight and a half times and blindly betting into a preflop raiser the other seven.
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This is a very good post.
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