Re: A7 suited hand
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On the flop with I roughly counted my outs as:
overcard = 1 - 1.5 outs (I didn't count it as a full 3 outs)
BDFD = 1.5, since it is to the nut flush
OESD = roughly 5 or 6, discounting it since I only have one card and I have the low end
As I was playing the hand, I did the quick, rough calculation to 8 outs. There were 10 small bets in the pot when it was to me, so I knew I had enough odds to call one bet.
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I think you've overvalued your hand by a wide margian.
First, the OC isn't worth 1.5 outs, b/c you won't win with it if you spike your ace 50% of the time. Maybe you'll win 1/3 of the time or less. I'd say the OC is worth .75 outs. Maybe.
The BDFD is in fact worth 1.5 outs.
The OESD is pretty crappy. It's 1-card to the ignorant end. If a J come you lose to any Q, a 7 to any J even if you hit. I'd put the OESD at 3-4 outs.
So your hand is worth on the order of 5 outs, not 8. You need your hand to be worth about 7 outs, which I think its definitely not. I'll fold the flop without hesitation.
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