[oaktoon]

OK, let's revisit.

I'm UTG in a 9 handed table. Dealt AKo.

Odds are remote that someone else has AK, and even more remote that it would be suited.

Odds are good that someone has Ax.

Odds are remote that someone has QQ or JJ.

Odds are decent that someone has a pair, and it will probably be a shorter stack than me.

Odds of neither of the above occurring-- Ax or a pair-- are probably in the range of 1/5.

So if I push from the get-go, I'd say 20% of the time I steal the blinds. That's an EV of 180 (900 x .20)

Another 20% of the time, there's an ace or a pair, but no call. That's an EV of 180.

60% of the time I am called-- let's call it 30% with just a pair, 20% of the time with Ax or another top hand such as KQ suited, 10% with both. Of the latter, the odds of the precise scenario (or even JJ instead of QQ) I was hit with tonight are probably no better than 1 in 200.

I'm a slight dog to the pair-- and it will be a short stack (say average 4000K) the vast majority of the time.

45% x 4000 x .30= EV 540

55% x 4000 x .30= EV Minus 660 (and of course occasionally I will be knocked out of the tournament.

I'm now up 240 in EV.

20% of the time I'm called with an Ax or KQ suited. I'm a pretty big favorite here-- let's say 2 to 1 on average. A bit more likely that the big stacks play here, so let's round up the net gain to 5000.

5000 X .66 x .20= EV 666

5000 X .33 X .20= Minus EV of 333

I'm now up 573.

And finally in the double situation-- 10% of the time-- I'm about 35% (occasionally a big stack will be on pot odds without an ace or a pair) to win the hand. And now you must round up the money wagered even more to 5200, given the greater likelihood of a big stack playing. But I could nearly double up.

SO:

.10 x .33 x 9500 EV 317

.10 x .66 x 5200 Minus EV of 343

I'm up 547 with an open push.


Playing it my way obviously it will often lead to the same result. I think i steal the pot almost as much as above. I think I face a multiple pot more, perhaps nearly twice as much.

The question is:

can I avoid a defeat (and possibly a knockout) more easily in the heads-up situations by playing the flop better?? And can I still get an opponent in if an ace or king hits on the flop? I'm too tired to do that set of calculations-- if someone can show me that my EV is worse that way, I'll concede the point. Remember that defeat means knockout.