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Old 09-25-2005, 09:53 PM
Pov Pov is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 145
Default Re: Mathematical Expectation in tourneys vs. cash games

I don't believe you should be adjusting your ME very much at all unless you're deep in the tournament and surviving a few more hands has a high likelihood of moving you up significantly in the prize money.

In TPFAP, Sklansky does discuss foregoing some +EV plays earlier in a tournament IF you are significantly better than your opponents because you can turn down a slightly EV play knowing your bad opponents will give you much greater EV chances in the near future. The misuse of this advice is one of the most common excuses I hear for playing too weakly in a tournament. Early in a tournament you should be attempting to build a stack so you can be effective later in the tournament when it really counts.

While this may result in your busting out more frequently, it should also result in you having a larger stack late in the tournament more frequently. There are some interesting implications to consider from a $/hr perspective as well. When tournament payouts were more top-heavy, it definitely made sense to play for the win or go home early. With the modern tournament structures starting to smooth out to pay more places and higher percentages to lower places than before it's possible there is more to be said for trying to sneak into the money.

So IMO, if you have a +EV play you should make it and live with the results, foregoing only the really small edges unless you've got some short stacks about to get busted by the blinds. Tournaments are very high variance - that's just the nature of the beast.

Disclaimer #1: I'm assuming we're talking about decent sized tournaments here, not a S&G.
Disclaimer #2: I am a much better cash game player than a tournament player. These are just my thoughts.
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