[MisterKing]

If it helps in your analysis, I was nearly 100% sure I was ahead of the LP guy at the turn.

The 2+2er was not brettbrettr, and the LP funny guy was an older gentleman named "Mac" who plays on Party. Nice guy, but not the sharpest knife in the drawer poker-wise. I have every intention of finding him on there and buddy-listing him (I've got his screen name). BTW, I was wearing a black partypoker hat while playing in this game, in case anyone else was there.

As for the turn decision I had to make, there was no way I'm folding, so its raise or call. For reasons already stated by W.Deranged, I was very weary of letting "Mac" call cheaply on what was probably a draw of some kind. Could be flush, could be straight, could be 66 with a "set draw" (you laugh, but this action was consistent with his play some of the time), whatevah. That said, I was also very concerned about being wb to the BB. Him donking me once was no big deal, it just meant he liked his hand generally. But calling me and then donking me again on a relatively insignificant turn was not ordinary for him, at least as far as I could tell. My inclination was to put him on one of 6 hands (in order of likelyhood): K8, K9, K4, K-trash... perhaps sooted in hearts perhaps not, 89s, Ah4h, 94. A few others were possible, but not really very likely (QQ/QJs/JTs/44/99/88 -- he'd likely play all of these very differently). Of the 6 hands I had in mind, I'm ahead of two (K-trash and Ah4h) and behind four. I have outs against them all.

There are 6 ways to make K8, 6 ways to make K9, 6 ways to make K4, 9 ways to make 94, 1 relevant way to make 98s (I dont think he'd bet into me with just a pair of 9s and no BD draw on the flop) -- a total of 26 hands that have me beat. OTOH there are 56 ways to make one pair K-lesser kicker and 1 way to make Ah4h, so I'm ahead of more hands than I'm behind. The hands I'm ahead of seem less likely than the ones I'm behind, so I guess we can weight the 56 hands at about 50% and get to 28 or so.

For this reason, I think a raise is good. It'll be for value sometimes, it will shut LP out sometimes, and we'll almost never be 3-bet. We do lose an extra BB when we raise & are behind, but not if we get a free showdown (and we decide we want one). Calling down also waves a huge red flag to the few observant players in the game that they can semibluff the [censored] out of Hero and knock him off some pots later on that are "his."