[Lestat]

I have a friend who according to PT, has a fold to a river bet of 52%!! At first, I thought this was WAY too high! The pot will certainly be offering 2 to 1 most times, so he is making it correct for opponents to bluff him 100% of the time.

However, he disputes this on several counts...

One, he claims that this figure is skewered because he is the one who is usually betting the river when he gets there. Other than the rare occasions where he's trying to induce a bluff or planning on check/calling with top pair, if he doesn't bet the river himself, he's on a busted draw. So he says this is a big reason why it *looks* like he's folding too much.

The other thing is that he has an ultra-aggressive style of play. Routinely 3 and 4 betting the turn often with top pair types of hands. So he claims it would take an incredibly courageous bet or raise on the river to bluff him out of a pot. He definitely doesn't think this is happening too often and when it does, he figures the guy made a great play and deserves to win it sometimes.

I'm not so sure... If he's playing that aggressively, the pots will be big by the time the river card arrives and he should NOT be folding anything with showdown value. But he insists that he is quite sure he is not folding too many winners.

He normally doesn't read 2+2, but I told him I'd post this subject here to see what some of the best online players think (sorry that this relates to the party 30-60 online and I'm not sure this qualifies as higher limit, but I wanted opinions from the best of the best).

So what do you guys think? Is it possible that 52% folding to a river bet is Ok? The guy beats the games pretty good (well over 1/100 6-tabling through 400k hands). I'm just wondering if he could be doing better. Most of the good players in my database have a fold percentage in the thirties. I'd appreciate comments on this. Thanks.