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Old 12-31-2005, 04:06 AM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default Re: probability of hands clashing....

Sheesh, thanks guys. I thought it was astronimcal, but I didn't realize that it was THAT astronomical lol.

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Keep in mind that's heads-up. At a 10-player table it will be about 9 times more likely that it happens to you(*), or about 278,000-to-1, and if you already have exactly 2 different pairs seeing the flop, then it is 8647-to-1.

(*)Note that it is less than 9 times more likely that an opponent has a different pair since 9 would count the times that N opponents have one N times, but note that when this happens it is also N times more likely to flop quads over full with some opponent assuming that all pairs see the flop, so the over counting is what we want. This would also include cases where 2 opponents share the same pair which we don't want, but these cases are rare, so it will be only slightly less than 9 times.
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