View Single Post
  #5  
Old 11-15-2005, 04:27 PM
jcm4ccc jcm4ccc is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 116
Default Re: Draw when heads up?

The way you have phrased this question makes it an easy odds question:

Calling on the flop. You need to call for 25000 to win a pot of 60000. You seem to have twelve outs, but it's probably good to knock that down by 1 (you will not always win if an Ace hits). Your odds are 3.2:1. You are getting less than 2.5 on your money. The call is not good.

You could have pushed on the flop. With 11 outs, your odds are 1.4:1 of hitting your hand by the river. That's pretty good. You also have some folding equity (Your opponent will have to call a 60K bet to win 120K, I think, which is some folding equity but not a lot--he won't fold if he has a queen, as you seem to think). If you fold, you have 84K to his 185K. I think pushing is preferable to folding.

Once you call the flop bet, I think you are pretty much pot committed. You don't want to call off 40% of your stack and then fold. Call the push.
Reply With Quote