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Old 07-05-2005, 01:38 PM
sholvar sholvar is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 46
Default Re: Typical river bet?

your whole hand is counterfeited and a doublepaired board is very very scary for a low pocket. If he calls your best option is tie, because I dont think that anybody will call the river with such a crap like 23o etc. and in many situations you will loose because you are outkicked or worse. If he raises it is, as you know, not better, and if he folds you won nothin because I dont think that he will fold a (much) better hand.
Thats why bettin the river can have only ONE reason: you want to bluff him out.
And bluffin depends on tells, the psychological aspects of you and your opponent and the rest of all factors on the table. A Handhistory is not 0,001% of what anybody needs to tell you if a bluffbet in your situation had be the right decision.
hm... if you dont know if you can bluff here you have a 50/50 chance to bluff him, but in the bad 50% you will looso IMO one or two bets and in the good 50% you will win more than 4BB. But this 50/50 is only correct over 10thousands of hands like this. You can be +EV if you know more about your enemy.
The rest is experience ^^
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