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Old 12-20-2005, 03:50 PM
Catt Catt is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 998
Default Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion

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After you said this, I looked at his folded to river bet and saw 47.6%! I am still surprised by the logic inconsistencies....and wondering how it's possible for someone reasonable enough to play everything else (VPIP, PFR, Folded SB & BB to steal, ASB, W$WSF) so close to optimally, yet fold THAT many winners on the end.

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The seemingly high FTRB and high losses with a high W$SD can also come about by making too many loose flop peels (which lead to turn peels) which lead to good river folds, i.e., loose flop peel, turn gives him a FD or OESD or gutter with an over - whatever - it gives him something that makes calling the turn seem reasonable given the pot size at that point, then river misses. This sort of playing error can be quite costly since the bad flop peel costs bets on both the flop and turn.

That said, I agree that he is most likely folding way too much -- a WTSD like that only VPIPing 25% seems awfully odd.

And that said, I'll repeat what someone else said: selection bias and sample size.
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