Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
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What 45s said, plus, you need to apply this kind of thinking to the next two hands as well to get a feel for how crappy the situation REALLY is.
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I'm saying you don't need to push any of the next couple hands. In all likelihood, you'll end up racing in the BB. If you happen to get lucky enough to get a nice hand that you can shove, awesome. It's just better to race or even get a walk in the BB than it is to make EXTREMELY marginal pushes for your entire stack, even though it's quite small.
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You want to get the most out of that stack in situations like these. It isnt about giving up, its all about the fact that you have an opportunity here to make HALF of the remaining players fold and to be HU a majority of the time. Your FE against SB is real...that's the crux of the argument.
If I had t140 I would wait for a better hand.
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I think most of this boils down to how often do SB and BB call. I think BB's calling 75%+ of hands. However when SB calls (how much? 15% 25%?), BB will call with 100% of hands because he's getting pot odds and probably knows you're "supposed" to try to eliminate the shorty all in.
So 15% of the time you're called in two spots, by a 15% hand range and a 100% hand range. 63.7% of the time you get called by a 75% hand range, and 21.2% of the time you don't get called. So let's figure out the equities:
vs two opponents (15% and 100%): 24.11% equity in the hand, 15% tourney equity if you win. So (.2411 * .15) = 3.6% tourney equity after this hand
vs one opponent (75%): 46% equity in the hand, 11.6% tourney equity if you win. (.26 * .116) = 3% tourney equity.
When they both fold: 9% tourney equity
Now weighting them:
.15 * .036 = 0.5%
.637 * .03 = 1.9%
.212 * .09 = 1.9%
Add em up and you get 4.3% equity vs 5.6% equity if you fold.
That took a little while [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] So I'm not going to do it for a different call range for the BB. But as you can see, they'll both have to be playing a bit tighter for a push to be +EV.
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