Re: River Play
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you're calling anyway, so if the button folds and the BB calls, it only costs you .25 BB more than it would have anyway, and (2) if the button folds, you win an extra 1/6 of the pot the times you chop
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This is pretty much exactly what I was thinking. The pot is big, so if I can get the button to fold in a three-way split I gain about 2.33 BBs. The key being that the BB has only $1.5 left after his bet, meaning if hes not bluffing its only costing me an extra 1/4 of a BB since I'm calling anyways. Also, I think that since he only had about one bet going into the river, he is likely to bet pretty much any hand since he too would be calling anyways. Because of this I think the vast majority of the time I will be splitting with him. I still don't know what percentages I should have assigned to the possibilities of the button or the BB having a Q or the flush, but I figure that if the button has it its costing me 2BB to win just over two BBs, and if the BB has it, I'm losing only 1/4 of a BB since I was calling anyways. So I guess it comes down to if the button has the higher straight or a flush less than half the time it is a profitable play, assuming he folds if he doesn't have it. Correct? Now if the button was a very intelligent player and could see what I was doing and resteal on me that would throw another twist into it, but I wasn't at all afraid of that.
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