Re: How bad is variance?
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$100 for 20 buyins would be fine if you where going fully stacked into 2c/5c NL (not that ive ever seen that level)
Bottom line is, you dont have enough of a roll.
Buying in for $5 or 20bb is not enough chips to play properly.
For example, your sitting with AcKc. It is raised $1 to you and your on the button. You re-raise to $3 and are called by the original raiser. The flop is Ad 9d 2s.
If your opponent has a flush draw, you cant make him make a mistake with a call.
If you cant make him make a mistake, you cant win long term.
If you where playing nickle/dime, $100 for 20 buy-ins would be a pretty good bankroll at that level.
If you want to only risk $100, go to a site with micro limits until your ready to move up.
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Your thinking is flawed. Just because on one particular flop his opponent will be getting proper odds to draw to his flush, does not mean we are playing -EV poker. In fact, even if his opponent may be getting nice odds postflop, his preflop mistakes could be so bad that there is no way for him to make it up postflop, even if he totally owns you postflop. That's what you are not realizing, his mistakes are mostly preflop mistakes.
Furthermore, you forget to note that villain doesn't always have a nice draw and the flop doesn't always come down so nice for a good draw. You didn't even mention the times hero flops a flush draw with some overs and can profitably shove his money in on the flop.
Playing shortstacked is a +EV strategy if you play tight preflop. That's about all there is to it. It's certainly not an optimal strategy but it is the only way I (a limit donkey) can play this evil NL game and make money.
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