Re: Easy River Value bet vs 54/33/1.4.... and Den?
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What are the possible hands he's played the way he has through the turn? <font color="blue"> Extremely wide range </font> Which of those are you ahead of on the river? <font color="blue"> everything but fullboats </font> Which are you behind? <font color="blue"> da boats </font> What's the likelihood he has hands falling into each of those two groups <font color="blue"> Well, it's certainly possible he has a boat...but he's just been checkcallin all the way with a wide range. He could be drawin, underpairing, Aceing, or getting his boat filled. He's been real quiet though. </font> ? Of the hands you're ahead of, how many of those would call a bet? <font color="blue"> Assuming he hasn't played KK or JJ weird and then scared or forgets his underpairs are now discounted, it pretty much leaves Aces and bluff attempts</font> <font color="blue"> I think i would have heard from a Q earlier and a T likely bets our river instead of cr... so I think I have that going for me. If guy doesnt call my river bet, does that make it any less of a river bet just because he didnt have an Ace? To Answer your question dircectly..... I get value from 3 aces and beat if he's holding 4 other cards. He's not given much indication he has one of the 4 other cards yet. I'm thinking it's still a good value bet, albeit thin. </font>
Easy. <font color="blue"> Thanks for expanding your answer, but I think your approach is a little too dissmissive. Stuff aint always easy, even if you'd like it to be. </font>
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