[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
i never said AK would threebet the river. i tyhink thatd be rare.
im saying, more likely he called flop/raised turn w/ a set than TP. TP more likely to threebet flop. also some chance this guy wouldnt cap pre without a pair.
im also saying that turn raise could easily be a "free" SD play w/ a J or QQ. these hands are actually fairly likely to call flop/raise turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

My response was to you saying that I'm a dog to a river bet, which, if you look only at the probabilities, is not true (assuming he doesn't cap a 2-pair hand like KJ etc preflop). I'm not particularly concerned about getting more value out of QQ/Jx given that I can't expect those to be reasonable hands to go 3 BB after the flop. Further, a bet/fold plan for the river is always raised by a better hand and called by AK whereas a river checkraise nearly always gets 2 bets out of AK--a nice thing about playing non-experts online is they will usually be suspicious enough to pay off with TP to checkraises on river blanks. So it looks like I get an extra bet half the time, assuming that the river fold to a 3-bet can be done safely and that we can narrow him down pretty much to AA/KK/JJ/AK. A final comment is that desperation river bluff raises happen, albeit rarely, but that desperation river 3-bet bluffs happen approximately never, so if I'm worried at all about folding incorrectly this should weigh heavily.