Re: Another four-flush hand
You played it just fine.
Not betting 4th street would be absolutely horrible.
5th street call is okay imo - like you said, it’s unlikely that seat 7 has trips. It’s not so great because seat 2 could have a better flush draw; he could also have a worse flush draw though (it’s about 50-50).
The river is interesting:
Note that both the 1 and 2 seats cards are very dead, so it’s extremely unlikely that one of them made a boat. Unfortunately, it is also extremely unlikely that seat 1 made a straight - 5s, 8s and 3s are all very dead; the only hand that makes sense for him is a 3-flush with either the 3c or the 5c (not tht he has to have a hand that makes sense - he could have just an under pair for all you know).
Seat 3 could have a wheel, but that’s also pretty unlikely.
On the other hand, the kings have shown a lot of strenght by betting. A diamond flush is a very real possibility; and kings full aren’t completely out of the picture either.
…. 2 hours of mind-numbing math later…
I suck at math and just completely owned myself trying to figure this out.
Some stuff I did figure out:
If we give seat 7 completely random hole cards, he has a diamond flush (which beats yours) about 13% of the time. I suspect that he has it quite a bit more often though, since a high percentage of players would check kings up in this spot.
Assuming seat 1 indeed started with a 3-flush, he will hit another club on the river about 36% of the time; 12% of the time he beats you with either the a high flush or the queen high-ten high flush.
And assuming seat 2 indeed started with a 3-flush, he will make his flush about 19% of the time; 10% of the time he beats your flush.
I don’t know what all this means, but I suspect it means you should just call (like you did), planning to call a raise by seat 1 or 2 and probably folding if the kings 3-bet.
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