Re: Did I win this bet?
From Bruce Z's post:
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Your expression gives the right anwer (1.860-to-1) because of 2 errors which cancel
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Did the two errors cancel out just in this case, or will they always cancel out. In response to dtbog's post, I worked out the answers using both my method and yours for calculating a 15 out straight-flush draw. The answers were the same.
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the fact that the original poster used this formula without explaining how or why he derived it (and i suspect someone else derived it and he just saw the end product) doesn't make him wrong.
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As far as how I derived it, I am proud to say that I came up with that sloppy formula on my own. I can't really say why I thought it would work. It just intuitively made sense to me (whether it makes sense to others is another matter) and when I plugged in a 9 out flush draw it ended up with the answer I knew was correct beforehand. So I figured I had it right.
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