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Old 12-13-2004, 07:02 PM
uuDevil uuDevil is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Remembering P. Tillman
Posts: 246
Default Re: Is a low SD indicative of anything?

IIRC, Mason Malmuth wrote in "Gambling Theory and Other Topics" that good players can have surprisingly low SD's.

On the other hand, it could mean you are playing too tight, including after the flop. Or you may be running bad and correctly dumping hands that don't pan out. How often do you see showdown? How often do you win at showdown?

Here are some thoughts (more or less as I've posted elsewhere):

If you play as tightly as possible (fold every hand) your SD will be zero. If you play every hand to the end, your SD will be quite high.

Aggression, both yours and your opponents', tends to force hands to end before showdown. Your good hands hold up more often, but you don't win as much. When you lose you don't necessarily lose the maximum because you folded to someone else's aggression. So variance may actually go down due to aggression.

Variance should be maximized when looseness is coupled with aggression. Say when muliple players are capping every street and seeing showdown. In this case you often lose a lot when you lose, but also win huge pots when you win.

As you go up in limit, aggression tends to go up and players are generally tighter. So if the above ideas are right, SD will tend to go down as a player moves up. This seems to be true in most instances where players have posted results at multiple limits.
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