[joker122]

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That does not change my EV calculation because I assumed you put in no more bets on the river when behind.

But, intuitively, don't you see putting in extra bets while 75% likely to be a 2-out dog must be wrong?

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yes, i do. but we are seeing a showdown. and id rather put in bets on the turn when i have at least 2 outs than on the river when i am drawing dead.



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here's the big problem with this - he will still bet the river with an overpair at least some of the time. even if it's a miniscule percent of the time it still cuts into our EV that much.